So Far, Israeli Election Campaign Quiet on Iran Nuclear Issue
While Iran is so far not part of the Israeli election campaign, Israel is still preparing for all possibilities, writes Alon Ben David.
The most dramatic and acute issue that Israel's future government would have to deal with — Iran's progressing nuclear program — has surprisingly disappeared from the agenda of the Israeli election campaign. There is hardly any authoritative opposition to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on national security matters. Most candidates lack the experience and the confidence to confront Netanyahu on the question of Iran, apart from Kadima's Shaul Mofaz; but with his poor performance in the polls, he is largely ignored by the media.
Yet, the question of how to deal with Iran has not disappeared, nor diminished. It was only deferred. The centrifuges in Natanz and Fordow continue to spin, producing 8 kg of low-enriched uranium per day and a monthly average of 14 kg of uranium enriched to the 20% level. Amassing some 150 kg of 20% uranium so far, Iran is moving steadily to meet 250 kg of 20% uranium, the red line of set by Netanyahu at the UN in his speech on Sept. 27. If Iran will not once again divert part of that material for other uses, by March it will cross Netanyahu's red line, forcing him to consider his pledge to stop Iran forcefully.
While the issue is dormant in the public sphere, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) hasn't stopped preparing for the day when the question of a strike on Iran will surface again. But the vast majority of IDF top brass have doubts whether Israel has the capabilities to stop, or even seriously delay, Iran's nuclear program.
It is fair to assume that Israel is able to identify the weak areas in Iran's program and prepare an operational plan of inflicting maximum physical damage to those parts which will be the hardest to reconstruct. But there are two things that the Israeli Air Force is incapable of denying the Iranians: the know-how that they have gained, and most of the fissile material already produced, which is highly secured. Moreover, many in the Israeli defense and intelligence community believe that an Israeli strike would only provide Iran with the perfect excuse for accelerating its nuclear program. Therefore, there are senior officers in IDF ranks who believe that Israel should replace the strike/not strike question with a new approach.
