Recently, opinions and analyses have abounded about a radical and pivotal change that has occurred in Washington’s Middle East policy, and about an American vise that has tightened to the point of choking the life out of the Iranian-Syrian-Hezbollah axis.

These opinions frequently cite three events that coincided with US President Barack Obama’s visit to Israel: The settlement between PKK head Abdullah Ocalan and Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Israel’s apology to Turkey [regarding the 2010 flotilla raid], and the resignation of Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati. But the opinion of Lebanese political sources with close ties to Hezbollah says otherwise, permitting them to formulate different conclusions that continue to affirm that the American president merely came to Israel for “sightseeing!”

First and foremost, these sources believe that Hezbollah was not surprised by the events that took place in the last few days: for information about intensifying the siege on its ally in Damascus, and therefore on itself in Beirut, had reached Hezbollah directly; for, more than ten days ago, a European ambassador held a long meeting with the strongest Shiite organization in the region, and frankly talked to its officials about the EU’s inclination to increase pressure on Lebanon and its government — and by extension on Hezbollah itself — unless the government began implementing certain measures. First among these measures requires Hezbollah to distance itself from the Syrian crisis, and second, to conduct parliamentary elections on time, even if that means under the current electoral law, to which the clear majority of Lebanese object.

Hezbollah received the same message a few hours later, in an official manner as well, through a senior official, according to sources close to the party. Furthermore, the same warning was conveyed to the president of the republic by the Secretary-General of the Gulf Cooperation Council on March 5, when he delivered a message to the following effect: “Inform Hezbollah that it has two options: Stop interfering in Syria or we will force it out of the cabinet.” All the signs of the looming crisis were apparent and therefore previously known. There were no surprises, just mere calculations, according to the source.