Rafsanjani Candidacy A Likely Winner

In the last minutes of the nominations for the presidency, Ayatollah Hashemi Rafsanjani officially threw his hat in the ring while his supporters had gathered anxiously around the Ministry of Interior building. Rafsanjani had recently announced that he would not participate in the elections without Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei’s agreement.

Although Rafsanjani had previously indicated that he is not committed to an unquestioning commitment to Khamenei, this time, this possibility is unlikely, because Rafsanjani has full awareness of his own lack of a power base and his retreat before his former political ally Khamenei. Also, considering that his publicly ignoring the leader of Iran’s wishes seems insignificant to him, it is likely that raising the issue of Khamenei’s agreement with this decision was merely a crafty pretense which was intended to neutralize his rival and prevent him from taking advantage of legal and illegal levers to oppose Rafsanjani. In any case, Rafsanjani’s decision will no doubt have an impact on the course of events in the Iranian elections; but what role will Rafsanjani play in the twists and turns of Iranian power?

First, he will create an atmosphere of election excitement, and this time — contrary to initial prognostications but indeed just as in previous terms — Iran will see heated and energetic elections, particularly since all the Reformists, a significant fraction of the traditional conservatives, the Qom Sources of Emulation, the middle layers of the seminaries and even the majority of the foreign opposition will give him united support.

Second, the cold atmosphere of despair over Iran will be broken around the world, including in the region, the international communities’ moral pressure and even the increasing material pressure on Iran will be decreased, particularly in the matter of the nuclear issue and intense pressure from the West and countries in the region, and we will see an improvement of conditions for Iran.