Turkey-Lebanon Detainee Swap Shows Lebanese State's Decline
Although the Lebanese rejoiced at the deal that secured the release of nine Lebanese detainees in Syria, the details of the swap reveal the Lebanese state’s inefficiency in dealing with such matters.
The detainee swap deal between Turkey and Hezbollah has raised several questions, as to its timing and the role of the parties in the release process. Qatar's emergence in the role of mediator was surprising at first glance, for this had profound implications in terms of shifts and changes at the regional level.
This deal also underlined that there are influential forces beyond the Lebanese state, and revealed the flaws of this small nation, which appeared to have lost the prestige and sovereignty of its institutions — namely the judiciary and security apparatus.
First and foremost, the swap deal clearly showed that the conflicting parties in the Syrian arena were able to embark on the path of negotiations, if they had interests in this regard, and if they came to realize that there would be no change in the balance of power, at least in the short term.
Second, these external influential forces have a major impact on the warring factions and groups at home, which could be employed to pave the way for a balanced and rational settlement. These two observations suggest that negotiations are likely to be back on the table, while the option of a military confrontation is likely to be discarded. This is especially true since the plight of the Syrian people has become a tremendous human tragedy beyond description, and since it has turned out that there is no imminent change in the balance of power on the battlefield.
