While US Secretary of State John Kerry continues the efforts to promote the negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians, something is going on in the West Bank. Something bad. On the Palestinian side, acts of violence have become ever more frequent. It is no organized intifada. Yet, there has been a noticeable escalation in violent events of a certain type, labeled by the Shin Bet as “terror attacks set off by the mood in the Palestinian street” with no guiding hand behind. In fact, there has been a steep rise in Molotov cocktail-throwing and rock-hurling incidents, riots and random terror attacks by individual terrorists.
On the Israeli side, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and the Shin Bet have stepped up their operations and incursions into the Palestinian Authority areas — typically, for the purpose of arresting wanted persons. Some of these incursions, such as the one on Dec. 18, deteriorate into a local flare-up — violence that leads to deaths and injuries. Two Palestinians were killed the week of Dec. 15 in an incident of this kind involving SWAT fighters and Israeli paratroopers.
The question is, who is going to win the race evolving before our eyes? Will it be Kerry, who seeks to extend the nine-month period allotted for the negotiations by another nine or so months, or rather the bubbling area, which is liable to escalate at any given moment from a local event into a larger-scale conflagration – one that could lead to further escalation, which would result in the break-up of the negotiations and drag the region into another cycle of violence?
On the Palestinian side, they point an accusing finger at the Israeli defense establishment, charging that it is deliberately seeking to step up its activity in the territories with the aim of igniting the area, setting off a controlled explosion and thus, disposing of the negotiations and of Kerry’s dangerous energies. Palestinian sources say that Israeli Minister of Defense Moshe Ya'alon is opposed to the security plan proposed by the Americans on the grounds that it is too risky, and claim that he will do anything to sabotage the whole move. Sources close to Ya'alon reject the allegations. The activity carried on in the territories by the IDF and the Shin Bet is indispensable and has no viable alternative, the defense minister’s close associates argue; there has been no increase in our operations and no attempt to bring about an explosion. Israel is interested in maintaining calm in the area, period.
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