If there are no tumultuous last-minute developments, the US aid agreement with Israel for the next decade (2018-2028) will be finalized next week, or soon after in August. While Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been spending the last year toying with the idea of postponing the signing until the next president takes office, he has finally been forced to give up on this. Now he has no choice but to sign the agreement with his mortal enemy, US President Barack Obama.
Just to reach this final agreement, Netanyahu had to climb down from several trees he had climbed up earlier and accept the Americans’ latest decree within the framework of the new agreement: Israel will no longer be able to exchange 26% of the aid money for shekels and then spend the money on acquisitions from Israeli defense industries. The Americans are aiming to reach a situation in which all aid money to Israel (about $3.7 billion per year) is spent in the United States. This would be a big boost to American industry and contribute to the administration’s war on unemployment. Netanyahu was forced to grit his teeth and agree.
The person who spearheaded these compromise efforts was Israel’s Finance Minister Moshe Kahlon. For at least some of the time, Kahlon spoke directly with the Americans about it. There was a strategic obstacle along the way, when former Minister of Defense Moshe Ya’alon was removed from his position and resigned from the government. Ya’alon was one of the most significant factors behind efforts to sign the agreement as quickly as possible. Just a few days later, however, it became clear that Ya’alon’s successor, Avigdor Liberman, shared the same position. He believed that Israel should do everything it could to close the deal and sign an agreement with the current US administration, reasoning that there is no telling what the situation will be like in the next administration. While Israel’s defense establishment needs money, it needs certainty and stability even more. These will only be obtained if the agreement is signed over the next few weeks.
Kahlon was able to obtain one significant compromise from the Americans. For the first five years of the agreement, Israel will still be allowed to exchange 26% of the aid moneys for shekels. This benefit will be cancelled gradually, starting in the sixth year, and only be completed at the end of the decade (2028). Kahlon told the Americans that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) recently completed a multiyear development plan with the Ministry of Finance and that this plan relied on American aid money as originally distributed. He asked the Americans to consider this constraint and to agree to the gradual implementation of the new policy until the IDF’s new multiyear program is completed in the next five years.
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