Afrin puts Turkish-Iranian-Russian mistrust on full display
More than anything, the situation in Afrin puts on full display the deep and lingering mistrust between Iran, Turkey and Russia.
Almost a month after Turkey’s launch of Operation Olive Branch in the northern Syrian district of Afrin, there is no clear outcome. Since the beginning of the campaign, Turkey’s post-Afrin objectives remained a matter of serious concern to other players — mainly Iran — whose reaction was to distance itself from supporting the Turkish assault while simultaneously refraining from supporting the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) in the area.
To Iran, Turkey’s intervention will only complicate the already-complicated situation in Syria and weaken the Sochi peace process that already witnessed a major setback in the Jan. 28 meeting in Russia, when the majority of the Syrian opposition boycotted the conference.
As such, a meeting between the presidents of Turkey, Russia and Iran is expected to take place in Istanbul to discuss the latest development, but a clear time frame for this meeting has yet to be set. The trilateral meeting will follow a similar meeting that took place in Sochi on Nov. 22, 2017, and laid the framework for cooperation between the three states on the Syrian crisis.
According to an Iranian official who spoke on condition of anonymity, Tehran has advised Ankara to be aware of being dragged into a war of attrition in Afrin. The official told Al-Monitor, “The point of view from Iran is that the Kurdish fighters have their lines of support, and many parties might want to see Turkey stuck in a quagmire. Therefore, it’s better to try to contain this adventure or else who knows how much it will drain the Turkish army.”
