Surprising reports emerged on the evening of May 7 about the movements of two foreign ministers. According to the first, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo suddenly canceled a meeting with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and ordered his plane to change course for Baghdad. At almost the exact same time, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif boarded his own plane for an unscheduled visit to Moscow. The scramble underscores the drama now unfolding around Iran and how it is sending shockwaves not only across the Middle East but throughout the entire world.

Israeli intelligence sources had raised concerns that Iran would react to growing American pressure by pulling out of the nuclear agreement, or at the very least reducing its commitment to it, including possibly going back to enriching uranium at a limited level. While that activity would not allow for the breakthrough needed to build a nuclear device, it would lay the groundwork for that possibility. On May 8, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani announced that this was exactly what Iran was planning. If no new understandings are reached to implement the nuclear deal, said Rouhani, Iran will resume enriching uranium within two months.

The big question now is how President Donald Trump will react. Will he respond to the Iranian challenge, or will he blink and lose interest, just as he did when he ran up against North Korea?

This especially dramatic incident is not taking place in a vacuum. While the Iranians were releasing their statement, the White House announced it was sending the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group to the Persian Gulf. The United States also announced that it was increasing the number of B-52 bombers deployed to the region. The move came in response to intelligence reports reaching Washington that Iran is planning to attack or instigate terror activities against American targets and interests in the region. “It is hard to imagine that the Iranians would take such a step themselves,” one senior Israeli military official told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity, “but we can certainly imagine them ordering one of their proxies, like Hezbollah, to launch such an attack in low signature.”