Drawing on Turkey’s geo-strategic standing, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has played both sides in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, earning himself the role of a mediator and expanding his maneuvering room to make other gains. 

But as the war enters its second year on Friday, Erdogan’s balance sheet is cloudy as he looks to Russian favors to boost his reelection chances at home, while doubts mount over his commitment to NATO in the West. 

Having fostered military cooperation with Kyiv and rejected Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, Erdogan maintained his policy after Russia invaded Ukraine. During the battle of Kyiv, the Bayraktar TB2s drones that Turkey supplied to Ukraine destroyed Russian air defense systems, command centers and supply convoys. They also targeted the Russian deployment at the Snake Island off Odessa and reportedly played a role in the sinking of the Moskva, the flagship of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet. Ukrainians were so elated that they dedicated a song to the drones. 

Turkey’s assistance angered Russian President Vladimir Putin. Two Turkish military cargo planes that flew to Ukraine shortly before the invasion began, allegedly carrying drones, remained stranded there for 10 months before Russia gave assurances for their safe return home.