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US blockade tests Iran's limits, but will global pain force Trump’s hand?

President Trump is doubling down on economic warfare against Iran, betting a naval blockade and sanctions can force a nuclear deal and end the war.

QESHM ISLAND, IRAN - APRIL 28: Boats navigate the sea on April 28, 2026 on Qeshm Island, Iran in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's latest proposal for ending its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz calls on the United States to end its naval blockade of Iran's ports, and sets aside questions about what to do with Iran's nuclear program. The United States has not formally responded to the latest proposal, which was delivered by Iran's foreign minister to Pakistan two days ago. (Photo by Asghar Besharati/Getty Images
Boats navigate the sea on April 28, 2026 on Qeshm Island, Iran in the Strait of Hormuz. — Asghar Besharati/Getty Images

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WASHINGTON — The Trump administration is turning the economic screws on Iran to force a war-ending deal, gambling that a country hardened by decades of sanctions can still be coerced into compromise. 

Direct talks over a potential deal to unblock the Strait of Hormuz and constrain Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for US sanctions relief ended in stalemate earlier this month. The Iranians refuse to send a negotiating team for a second round of talks in Islamabad until the United States lifts its blockade. 

In Tehran, the leadership is wagering that Washington will blink first as crude prices surge from roughly $70 a barrel earlier this year to above $120, pushing up the cost of gasoline ahead of the midterm elections. But President Donald Trump, who met with top oil executives at the White House on Tuesday, says he’s preparing for an extended blockade on Iranian ports and ships after a six-week US-Israeli bombing campaign severely weakened Iran's military capabilities but didn't force concessions on its nuclear program.

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