How Hamas disarmament deal may test Iran's regional strategy
A possible Hamas decision to disarm would represent more than a Gaza development, testing Iran's decades-old strategy of projecting power through regional allies.
TEHRAN — The Gaza deal announced this week by US President Donald Trump's Board of Peace would require Hamas to dismantle its armed capabilities as part of a wider framework involving a ceasefire, Israeli withdrawal and the creation of a new Palestinian administration in Gaza. If Hamas follows through on the agreement to disarm, the consequences could extend far beyond the Palestinian territory, potentially becoming one of the most serious challenges yet to Iran's regional strategy.
Trump called the agreement "a major step toward lasting peace and security," saying it would ensure that Gaza no longer serves as a base for attacks against Israel. But for Tehran, the significance lies elsewhere: whether one of its closest regional partners is moving away from armed resistance as the central pillar of political influence.
For decades, Iran has been building its regional deterrence strategy around what it calls the "Axis of Resistance" — its network of armed groups including Hamas, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and allied militias in Iraq and Syria. The policy has allowed Tehran to project power beyond its borders while maintaining a degree of strategic distance from direct confrontation.
Hamas' reported acceptance of the framework does not mean the group has already surrendered its weapons. Significant questions remain over implementation, verification and whether Israel will fulfill its own commitments.
