The demise of the Annan plan for Syria is quickly giving rise to yet another dubious gambit: that the way to bring president Bashar al-Assad down is to get the Russians to walk away from him. It’s certainly worth a try. But in the end, if the United States wants the regime out, it will have to find a way to pressure it with force.

So far, the Arab spring/winter has offered up three ways to get rid of Arab autocrats. First, the Egyptian model in which sustained public pressure in the streets forced Mubarak from power. It worked because the military, seeking to  preserve its own credibility and influence, refused to confront the Egyptian people.

The second  — the  Yemeni  mode — saw a combination of factors, including regional pressures from the Saudis and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and  internal ones from Yemeni president Saleh’s own physical injuries, work to create a political transition complete with some carrots. Saleh was given immunity and allowed to stay in country.

The third was the Libyan model in which the Americans and French sought a UNSC  resolution to create a mandate to protect civilians but actually to use NATO to assist the opposition in overthrowing Qaddafi.