As Egypt wraps up the first round of its immensely controversial referendum on the draft constitution, the country has grown perhaps even more divided with the release of the polling results than it was before.
Quite surprisingly, even for many of the anti-constitution campaigners, the draft constitution won only 56.5% support, while the “no” camp scored a somewhat unexpected 43.5%. Islamists were regularly claiming an expected 70%+ figure, though maybe largely as propaganda, while many analysts were expecting something within the mid-sixties range. While there is an avalanche of reports alleging various forms of electoral violation and voter manipulation coupled with calls for at least a repeat of the first round, for the purposes of this piece I will assume the results were sufficiently fair and accurate.
To benchmark and understand this new data, the easiest route would be to compare the results of this round of the referendum to the parallel results from the March 2011 referendum on the constitutional amendments. Back then, the scene was quite similar to that of today. Islamists and much of the state apparatus were gearing for a “yes” vote, in hopes of moving towards parliamentary elections first, whereas the liberal opposition was vying for a “no” vote so as to move towards the writing of a new constitution as their preferred primary step. In a vote that also carried heated religious undertones, the “yes” vote eventually garnered a massive 73%, compared to a meager opposition of 27%.
On a per-governorate level, eight out 10 governorates scored a lower “yes” vote in this referendum than in the 2011 one. Most noticeably, Cairo, which voted “yes” by 63% in 2011, turned around and voted “no” by 56.5% in this referendum. Alexandria voted “yes” by 56% this year, down from 67% from the last. El-Daqahleyya dropped in the “yes” vote from a whopping 80% to 55%, El-Gharbeyya shifted colors from a resounding 79% approval to a Nay-saying 52%, while El-Sharqeya dropped from an “87%” yes to a 66% rejection. Other governorates featured drops as well, while only Assiut grew from 73% approval to 78%, and — quite interestingly — Sohag remained remarkably steady at 79% in both referenda.
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