The Arab uprisings mark a watershed moment for the region as it embarks on an era of historic change. Yet the euphoria that first accompanied the popular revolts has yielded to more sober assessments of the deep-seated challenges embedded in these complex transformations. In particular, the region faces significant economic tests. The Arab world must create an estimated 50 million jobs over the next decade to meet the demands of its expanding labor force. Less apparent, but equally worrying, are the myriad environmental threats that could derail the Arab transitions. Acute stress related to water and food scarcity, climate change and increased urbanization undermine productivity, endanger public health, and sap the natural resource base.

According to the World Bank, environmental degradation already costs an annual average of 2.1% of GDP in Tunisia, 2.4% in Jordan, 3.7% in Morocco, and 5% in Egypt. Creative solutions to address these environmental threats could also unlock the potential for economic growth and job creation, transforming one of the region’s pre-eminent challenges into a significant opportunity. “Greening” Arab economies by adopting innovative technologies and forward-leaning government policies would create jobs, mitigate environmental risks and place the region at the forefront of broader global efforts toward sustainable development. 

Water scarcity poses a perennial threat to economic vitality and social welfare across the region, which is the most water stressed in the world. Demographic trends and global warming will aggravate these water issues in coming decades. As the region’s population doubles over the next 40 years, water availability per capita is projected to plummet 50%. Unmet demand could more than double in Jordan and soar eleven-fold in Egypt.

Increasingly, the Arab world’s water troubles intersect with concerns about food supplies. Arab countries are already the world’s largest net food importers, buying 25-50% of their total national consumption from abroad. This strategy has helped curb domestic water usage by easing agricultural requirements, but it has also rendered the countries vulnerable to global price fluctuations of staple crops. Following the 2007-08 global food crisis, for example, many countries across the region saw the cost of basic food items skyrocket, draining public budgets while breeding popular disaffection that ultimately led to the Arab uprisings.