If Israel attacks Iran, the Israeli heartland could face retaliation from more than 10,000 missiles based in Iran, Syria, Lebanon and the Gaza Strip, according to Uzi Rubin, the founder and first director of Israel’s Missile Defense Organization.

Rubin, speaking Thursday (Aug. 16) before the Middle East Studies department of the US Marine Corps University in Quantico, Va., said it was “above his pay grade” to say whether or not it would be wise for Israel to strike Iranian nuclear facilities. However, in a detailed presentation of the threats Israel faces and in an interview afterward with Al-Monitor, Rubin made his reservations about the repercussions of such an attack clear.

Israel’s strategic circumstances have changed dramatically in the last two or three decades, Rubin said, from a time when the main threat came from other nation state’s tanks and airplanes. Recognizing that they could not compete with Israel in these areas, he said, governments in Iran and Syria and the non-state actors Hezbollah and Hamas have emphasized “indirect fire” from “standoff weapons” — rockets and missiles of ever increasing range, power and accuracy.

Rubin said at least 13,000 such weapons are now in the hands of Israel’s adversaries that can reach Israel’s most populated areas, including 1,500 that “can hit greater Tel Aviv.” Hezbollah, which in a 2006 war with Israel confined its strikes to Israel’s north, now “can cover all of Israel down to [its southernmost city, the Red Sea port of] Eilat,” Rubin said. Even Hamas has rockets that can reach Tel Aviv from Gaza, he said. Iran, he said, has several missile systems that could target Israel and has started deploying missiles in hardened silos that would be difficult to take out pre-emptively.