The Iranian regime is currently facing tough open-ended sanctions. Judging by the recent presidential foreign-policy debate, there is no end on the horizon as neither candidate would be willing to reduce sanctions unless Iran Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei backs down.
The economic challenges posed by the current sanctions are by far the biggest foreign-induced challenge that Khamenei has faced since assuming the role in 1989.
Should the current sanctions and isolation regime imposed by the West against Iran continue in their current format, in my opinion it is highly likely that Khamenei will be forced to make a new set of compromises at the nuclear talks. This could happen within two to three years, at most. Compromises are likely to include the following:
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Closing Iran’s nuclear site at Fordow near Qom
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Agreeing to ship all of its 20%-enriched uranium abroad for conversion into nuclear fuel
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Agreeing to answer all outstanding IAEA questions regarding its past nuclear activities
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Agreeing to a tougher inspection regime for Iran's nuclear facilities
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Dropping the demand that the West recognize Iran’s right to enrich uranium as a precondition (This recognition is likely to be postponed until all other outstanding issues have been resolved.)
The Iranian regime is likely to offer these compromises as part of a step-by-step program. After each step is taken, part of the current sanctions against Iran would be lifted and nuclear fuel would be supplied, at stages agreed on by both parties.
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