Ali Haidar and the Syrian political solution

 

Al-Monitor published an exclusive interview this week with Ali Haidar, Syria’s minister of national reconciliation. Haidar is also head of Syria’s Social Nationalist Party and one of only of two opposition figures inside Syria with a ministerial portfolio.

 

Haidar put the Jan. 6 speech by President Bashar al-Assad, which was roundly criticized in the West, in the best possible light. Haidar said the speech represented “preliminary ideas”   about the transitional phase in Syria and was “a step forward toward solving the crisis.”  He noted that the process described by Assad leads to a referendum on a new constitution and that “this is when the role of this current government will come to an end, paving the way for a new government that will be the product of subsequent elections and the national dialogue.”

 

Asked about Turkey’s role in Syria, Haidar described it as “very bad” and “sectarian.”

 

Haidar’s comments are significant, as he is and will be a key figure in negotiations between the Syrian government and the varied opposition inside and outside Syria. 

 

The prospects for any political solution will depend on those like Haidar in Syria who can be bridge builders and peace makers among all of Syria’s constituencies, and who recognize that there is no cease fire or chance of a peaceful transition without some form of negotiation with the Syrian government. 

 

Syrian Salafists seek Islamic state

 

In another Al-Monitor exclusive, Tulin Daloglu interviewed "Rami Youssef," an Ahrar al-Shams Salafist fighter who said that the goal in Syria is an Islamic state and “we will not let go until we achieve our goal.”

 

Rami claimed to have no knowledge of Mouaz Alkhatib, the former imam of a Damascus mosque and the new, internationally recognized leader of the Syrian opposition, saying “most of the fighters just fight because Assad is evil, but they don't know anything about this guy or the opposition outside.”

 

On Turkey’s role in Syria, Rami said Ankara “is helping us because they’re an Islamic government too. But they are also profiting from this war by selling weaponry to us at far higher prices. They are becoming opportunistic.”

The rise and proliferation of Salafist fighters in Syria, with little or no connection to the external Syrian opposition, is a trend that Al-Monitor has been covering since we launched last year and one that should be alarming to those concerned about what Joint Special Representative Lakhdar Brahimi has called the “somalization” of Syria. 

 

The only decent prospect left for Syria, as Brahimi and Haidar have separately pointed out, and as has been written several times in this column, is a political solution that involves a negotiation between the opposition and the Syrian government and its constituencies, including the Alawite community, whose role will be essential for Syrian state institutions to avoid collapse.

 

Syrian refugees

 

The tragedy and crisis of 2 million Syrian refugees was reported this week by The New York Times and other media outlets.

 

Al-Monitor has given priority and attention on the struggles and plight of Syrian refugees through exclusive, original reporting in Lebanon, Turkey, Jordan and Egypt.

 

Besides the humanitarian implications of this crisis, neighboring states are already seeking to limit the numbers of refugees, magnifying the extent of the crisis. 

 

As Jean Aziz reported last week, there is concern about the spillover of the Syria conflict to Lebanon as militants may be among the displaced. There are also the strains on the infrastructure and capabilities of Syria’s neighbors to adequately care for the refugees.

 

The increase in Syrian refugees is yet another sign that the Syrian crisis is a regional crisis, that continued violence will only increase the flow of refugees and displaced, that the sectarian conflict is part of the contagion, and that an urgent political solution is required to halt the Syrian tragedy.

 

Iran in Gaza

 

Abeer Ayoub reported on Iran’s deepening support for Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), illustrating another trend in Iran’s capabilities as a broker of either war or peace in the region, including on Israel’s borders, a trend that has been reported previously here.

 

Abu Ahmad, spokesman for Al-Quds Brigades, the armed wing of PIJ, told Ayoub: “We are not the only Palestinian armed group that receives an Iranian support, but we are the one that admits it the loudest. We feel it’s like an inevitable gratitude.”

 

Ayoub reported that Iran “also sponsors families of Islamic Jihad prisoners and injured fighters of the faction.” Abu Ahmad told Ayoub that Hamas’s  strained ties with Iran over Syria has not weakened PIF-Iran relations, and that  Islamic Jihad showed improved capabilities and performance in the last battle with Israel.

 

Based on Ayoub’s reporting, it is safe to conclude that Iran’s role and influence is likely to rise, as it seeks to convey to Israel, the US, and the region that it has the capability to bring conflict or quiet to Israel’s borders.

Turkey-Kurd issues need regional context

 

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s decision to hold talks with imprisoned Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) leader Abdullah Ocalan is unlikely to solve Turkey’s Kurdish issue absent changes in Turkey’s foreign policy.

 

The murder of three Kurdish Workers Party (PKK) activists in Paris was catalyst for analysis of the prospects for Erdogan’s initiative, not just for Turkish politics, as reported by Kadri Gursel, but for Turkey’s role in the region. 

 

Denise Natali wrote that "Ankara’s sectarian-based agenda and conflicts with regional states have given the PKK access to new or renewed sources of support." Cengiz Candar noted that allegations quickly spread of an Iranian role in the killings. Whether true or not, the allegations reveal the sectarian impulse that characterizes the region’s politics.

 

The Kurdish issue is taking on its own life and dynamic, increasingly less susceptible to the sway of any one leader, whether it be Ocalan, Erdogan, Kurdistan Region president Massoud Barzani, or anyone else.

 

Erdogan therefore cannot expect to isolate and "solve" the Kurdish issue just through talks with the imprisoned Ocalan. The Kurdish issue in Turkey is not just about Ocalan.  His photos were absent from the massive rally at the funerals for the activists in Diyarbakir, Kadri Gurlel wrote.  Ankara’s troubles with Iraq and Iran mean that both Baghdad and Tehran can play their version of the Kurdish card against Turkey, in Syria or elsewhere. 

 

The Syrian Democratic Union Party (PYD) and other Syrian Kurdish groups have kept a distance from Turkish machinations with the Syrian opposition. Ankara’s “all in” strategy with the Kurdistan Regional Government has limited its options with Iraq and fueled retaliation by Iran in Iraq, where an Arab-Kurdish confrontation is as likely ever as we have noted previously in this column.