The previous elections in Israel took place in February 2009, some three months after Barack Obama was elected as the first black president in the history of the United States, and about one month after he assumed office. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu formed his government on April 1, 2009. In other words, Obama had a 40-day hiatus in which he was the sitting president and Netanyahu was the prime minister-designate, attempting to put together a coalition. Tzipi Livni’s Kadima was the largest party in the Knesset [Israeli Parliament] then, with 28 seats, one more than Bibi’s Likud. At that time, various forces in Israel and abroad, recommended to the Obama team that the president make a quick presidential visit to Israel. Their reasoning? They hoped that this might influence the configuration of Israel’s future government. Following those elections, they explained, Netanyahu could choose one of two possible alternatives to form his new government. A presidential visit would make it clear to him, and to Livni too, that the peace process would be high on the agenda of the Obama’s first term, and that the government should be formed accordingly. It would be a case of “soft involvement” in Israel’s internal affairs, but of the kind that remains within the realm of legitimacy. As we all remember, Obama did not accept this recommendation. He preferred to visit Egypt and deliver his famous “Cairo Speech,” which, in retrospect, seems like one of his more resounding errors.

Let’s skip to today. A recommendation has been sent to Washington yet again. In fact, it is the exact same recommendation. The identities of the people who sent the recommendation are more or less the same as well. They are Israelis involved in generations of diplomatic negotiations. They are involved politically and even internationally throughout the entire region. “Mr. President, you have another chance to signal your intent. You can clarify to whoever needs clarification that this time the diplomatic process really will be at the top of your agenda. Maybe this way you can influence the new coalition-in-the-making. Maybe Netanyahu will finally internalize how things really stand. Maybe his coalition partners will realize it. This is your second chance, Mr. President,” they will go on to say. “You won’t get a third. You have no more terms left. It’s now or never.”

The initial impression was that Obama rebuffed this recommendation too. The clearest sign of this arrived in the form of an announcement that the designated Secretary of State John Kerry was going to make a quick trip to the region. That should be more than enough for those Middle Eastern and Asian natives for now. Yesterday came the big surprise. Obama himself is coming. The news left many in Israel reeling. First, they had always assumed that the President of the United States would be the main guest of honor at Israel’s “President’s Conference” in June, at which President Shimon Peres will celebrate his ninetieth birthday. Obama has acquired a deep respect for Peres and is fostering him as the moral alternative to Netanyahu. His presence at Peres’s event after elegantly skipping over Netanyahu for the past five years could send a piercing message. But now it seems that despite all of that, something really is moving in Washington. They’ve decided to stop playing and start winning, not just in the poll booths of America, but in the hearts of Israel too. Obama will arrive in March, with or without a new Israeli government, and with this he will be sending a clear signal. “Friends, this time there will be a diplomatic process. We won’t let you pull one over on us this time. So, my good friend Netanyahu, you had better put together a coalition you can work with, so that we can work with you. Period.”

So what’s the plan? It’s too early to celebrate. At this stage Obama has no plans to roll up his sleeves and dip his delicate hands in our filth. That’s why he brought John Kerry on board, or it’s probably more accurate to say, that’s why they invented the Europeans. America will “lead from behind,” just the way Obama likes it, providing proper back-up and the appropriate signals. It will then try to pick the best possible moment to burst in and throw all its weight on something or someone.