The rapprochement between Turkey and Israel on Friday [March 22] included an official apology from Israel — an attempt to make amends for the 2010 Mavi Marmara incident. And while some will see the apology as a clear victory for Turkey over the Jewish state, the truth is that this diplomatic development is a way to keep Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan both on the side of the United States and Israel, and in line.
Once again, Turkey is finding itself at a crossroads. Erdogan wants to change the country’s parliamentary system into a Turkish-style presidential system, and he wants a new constitution that supports his vision for a new Turkey. Doubts and uncertainty hang over the country’s future, and many questions remain unanswered about whether Turkey is leaning toward democracy or moving in the direction of constraining freedoms and silencing opposition. What is clear, however, is that Erdogan has taken a bold step in attempting to end the Kurdish armed movement that has been fighting against the state since 1984. He knows that if he achieves peace, he can write his ticket domestically for the presidency — thus, he even accepted jailed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) leader Abdullah Ocalan as a partner in this effort, claiming that Ocalan is the only one who can control the armed militia.
The Kurdish issue also has tremendous impact on Turkey’s foreign policy. Turkey faces enormously complicated problems with its neighbors Iraq, Iran and Syria, all of whom have Kurdish populations. Erdogan’s government supports the Iraqi Kurds in bypassing Baghdad and cutting their own hydrocarbon deals. If Iraq ends up divided between the Kurds and the Shiites, Turkey could face serious issues if the Iraqi Shiites were to sympathize with Tehran and expand Iran’s influence in the region. This potential scenario is also an issue for the United States and Israel to be concerned about.
Turkey also has significant disagreements with Iran over the Iraqi and Syrian crises. The more Tehran ties itself to Bashar al-Assad’s survival, the more Ankara pushes to oust Assad from power. And these issues are only further complicated by Iran’s nuclear weapon program.
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