On March 21, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei announced what appeared to be a shift in his policy toward direct, bilateral negotiations with the US when he said that although he was not optimistic about negotiations with America, he was also not opposed to them.

This was a step forward from his comments just last month when, parallel with his consistent position, he harshly rejected Vice President Joe Biden's offer of direct talks. He had said, “You aim the gun at the Iranian nation and then say, ‘Negotiate or I shoot!’ But you should know that pressure and negotiation are not compatible.”

What caused this change of heart in less than two months? The first thing that comes to mind is that Khamenei took the new position because of broad discontent about high prices resulting from sanctions. This discontent could ignite unrest and lead to what Baztab, a popular political website in Iran, called a “movement of the hungry.” However, this view may not explain why Khamenei’s stance has changed so radically in such a short period of time while not much else has changed within the last month and a half.

A more realistic theory is that recent US propositions for bilateral talks, repeated frequently by the Americans, could not go unheeded by Iran’s leadership. President Barack Obama’s March 18 message for the Iranian New Year specifically stands out. The message was friendlier than those from past years, but more importantly, unlike any of his previous messages and speeches, it contained neither threats nor accusations toward Iranian leaders.