For the first time in Israel’s history, a new defense minister has taken the post without any threat of a foreign army ready to invade our territory. Anticipated cuts to the defense budget will provide Moshe "Bogie" Ya’alon with a chance to complete a process he began as chief of staff [2002-05] and shrink Israel’s land forces. The IDF of today is a “smart army.” Considering the challenges he faces, will Ya’alon also make it smaller and more relevant?

From the day that Israel was established, the greatest threat was always thought to be an invasion of foreign armies which would seize chunks of territory. That threat no longer exists. For the past four decades, the IDF has structured itself so that it could win another Yom Kippur War, but such a war will not happen again. The threat of a “classic,” conventional war, which generations of soldiers and officers trained to fight, is no longer with us.

For decades, the Syrian army provided a point of reference for potential scenarios considered by the IDF. But it has since ceased to function as an effective army, and it is doubtful whether it will be a threat in the foreseeable future. While the Egyptian army continues to equip itself with American weapons, it is hollow shell of its past, untrained and inexperienced. Then again, even if the Egyptians ever make the mistake of entering the Sinai Peninsula by force, the existing technologies today could stop them "without leaving your seat."ֿ

Today’s IDF faces significant challenges both from Hezbollah in Lebanon and from distant Iran, which is trying to obtain nuclear weapons. Still, any straight-talking military man will admit that he is unlikely to see another tank battle in his lifetime. In an age when a $100,000 anti-tank missile can easily destroy a $5 million tank, a significant part of the IDF’s armored brigades becomes irrelevant.