At a recent gathering on March 24 in his city of birth Mashhad, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei emphasized the characteristics of the next president as: “having the strengths which exist today, minus the weaknesses.” In other words, someone who has Ahmadinejad's strengths but not his weaknesses.

At the same gathering, Khamenei also emphasized that he will only have one vote and that no one will know his vote before he casts it. It's difficult to believe that this will be true. In fact, the upcoming presidential elections are likely to decided by Khamenei, in consultation with the IRGC. Their opinion is likely to carry the second highest weight after his. Between them, Khamenei is likely to be the only party that has the last word and veto power.

Such a strategy has much logic. Iran is at a very sensitive juncture. After Khamenei's appointment as supreme leader in 1989, every president who has come to power has fallen out with him at one point or another. This includes Ahmadinejad, whom Khamenei publicly and privately backed more than any president who served under him because he believed that he was a loyal soldier. However, Ahmadinejad proved him wrong. Not only did Ahmadinejad create much infighting within the regime, in May 2011 he even went as far as publicly challenging the decision of the supreme leader. This is a scenario which Khamenei would not want repeated — ever again.

Taking into consideration his numerous difficulties with Ahmadinejad and the challenges that lie ahead such as sanctions, isolation and a worsening economy, in all likelihood, Ayatollah Khamenei's criteria for choosing the next president is likely to be the following (in descending order):