It's no secret that Iran’s private business community has been suffering as a result of political uncertainty, sanctions and economic mismanagement. The latest public outcry came in early May, when the Coordination Council of Professional and Engineering Guilds issued a statement criticizing the “diminishing space for the private sector” and asking the political decision-makers to liberalize the political sphere for greater participation of the private sector in key economic and trade decisions. The communiqué concluded by stating: “We will endeavor to promote the active participation of NGOs in national policy-making and believe that all politicians and government representatives should pave the way for an active role by entities like us.” This entity includes 16 major guilds in various technical, infrastructure and construction subsectors, with some 40,000 companies as members. 

Sentiment is very similar among other guilds and industry associations; the timing of the aforementioned statement was certainly not a coincidence. Evidently, representatives of Iranian industry see an opportunity to support those presidential candidates who are more likely to liberalize the Iranian economy. From the perspective of the business community, there are three distinct layers and phenomena that make the upcoming elections significant:

First is the impact of the next president on the economic well-being of Iranian society. Continued economic hardship would clearly undermine market potential, to the detriment of Iranian businesses. Second is the need to redefine state–society relations in economic terms (issues such as subsidies, how to utilize petroleum wealth, social security, etc.). Third is the more dominant role of economic interest groups—as opposed to ideological and political interest groups—within the constellation of power. There are a growing number of institutions (not just the IRGC, but also a large number of revolutionary, religious and military foundations) that are competing for control of the country’s economic resources. This is why the genuine private sector continues to be concerned about the attitudes of the next government towards the semi-state institutions.

So far, the roller coaster of nominations and vetting of candidates has led to fluctuations in the mood of the business community and their optimism about the post-Ahmadinejad era. In fact, the brief period of hope for another Rafsanjani presidency had generated some momentum in the Iranian business community, but after Rafsanjani’s dismissal there is a concern that the hard-liners’ grip over the country’s political and economic scene will further be consolidated through the upcoming election.