Israel’s Mistake in Attacking Syria

The announced aim of the Israeli government in attacking military targets in Damascus on May 5 was to prevent Hezbollah from gaining access to military equipment that might lead to a “game change” resulting in a loss in position for Israel. Perhaps the attack can be considered a limited military victory for Israel, but one cannot ignore the consequences of it in altering the political, strategic and military balance negatively against it.

In regard to the Syrian crisis, Israel has publicly set out its red line, consisting of two elements: transfers of rockets or ballistic missiles that could weaken its position and transfers of chemical weapons from Syria to Hezbollah. The crossing of Israel's red line was the basis for the attack on the military research center in northwest Damascus. Israeli leaders believed the facility housed advanced missiles with the ability to hit Tel Aviv and that they were ready to be transferred to Hezbollah. The strike was presumably carried out to prevent a shift in power that would be negative for Israel.

While it is possible that Israel has achieved some of its military goals for the time being, the attack on Syria will ultimately result in more problems in a number of ways. First, the strike has increased the legitimacy of the “resistance front” with which Hezbollah is affiliated. Certain Western and Arab assessments, which have support in Israel as well, hold that the active participation in Syria of Hezbollah, a Shiite group supported by Shiite Iran, will exacerbate sectarian conflicts between Shiite and Sunni groups in the Middle East. This perspective stresses the faction-oriented politics of Hezbollah and sees its involvement in Syria as the main reason behind the region's sectarian conflicts. The Israeli attack has weakened the strength of this argument and instead highlighted the cause of Hezbollah’s so-called resistance.

In a speech on May 9, Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah identified Israel as the main source of menace in the region and emphasized the importance of fighting against it. This alone has increased the legitimacy of the resistance front as a movement. He even mentioned that in the future, more “game-changing” advanced weapons will be transferred from Syria to Hezbollah. This would, indeed, be troubling for Israel.