Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan will be meeting with President Obama in the Oval Office on May 16. On his first visit to Washington since 2009, Erdogan and Obama have much to discuss. The Syrian crisis with all its ramifications will overshadow all other issues. As can be expected, the president’s public and behind-closed-door comments are likely to be quite different. He will need to assuage a nervous, yet supremely self-confident, leader facing a number of challenges ahead of him.

Here is an exercise in imagining what these might look like:

For the public, Obama will be mostly smiles and praise, recognizing Turkey’s taking in Syria’s refugees; agreeing that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad “must go”; lauding Erdogan’s peace process with Turkey’s Kurds; welcoming the cold peace between Israel and Turkey, and hoping it will get warmer; dealing with Iran and Iraq; the usual platitudes about Turkey being a democratic model; and something about Armenia.

Then the door will close and Obama will really talk about Syria, saying something like: