Erdoğan had traveled to Washington hoping to convince Obama that the red line Washington set on the use of chemical weapons by the forces of President Bashar al-Assad had been crossed, implying some form of military response was necessary. He was also hoping to convince the US of the need to openly arm opposition forces and to see some movement on the question of a no-fly zone to protect civilians, as well as a safe haven in Syria to reduce the growing pressure on Turkey from refugees.

What happened instead is that Obama convinced Erdoğan to move away from the military line and support the political-diplomatic effort, now being spearheaded by Washington and Moscow, for a settlement to the conflict through talks involving the Syrian opposition and the regime. A meeting under UN auspices in Geneva in July 2012 had endorsed the idea of talks between the opposition and the regime, but Ankara never approached it with much enthusiasm.

Erdoğan himself is on record as saying recently that the effort to revive the Geneva process amounts to “spreading flour on a string,” a Turkish saying suggesting a waste of time. The fact that he is now openly supporting the proposed second Geneva summit, expected to be held in the coming weeks, represents a serious change in position.