With less than two weeks until the Iranian presidential election, things are still very much up in the air. Perhaps more than seeking to rally the public, most serious contenders are either focusing their energy on setting up alliances that will boost their positions or waiting for those final configurations to emerge. The result is that we have so far witnessed a far less vibrant pre-election atmosphere compared with 2009. This need not, however, forebode a placid vote.

There is a particularly large swing vote in Iran, where it is locally known as the hezb-e-baad (Party of the Wind). As seen in the last presidential election, and in the days leading up to the deadline for candidate registrations, this swing vote can be rapidly excited and mobilized.

The haggling behind the scenes shows the often impromptu nature of Iranian politics, which is exceedingly difficult to forecast. Yet, it should be kept in mind that there is always structure, even in chaos.

Observers would be wise to pay attention to three concurrent (but interrelated) developments that will likely shape the outcome of the June 14 vote.