Reports of a major military breakthrough by the Syrian army in Qusair, a strategic town close to the Syrian-Lebanese border, and surrounding areas last week [June 4-7] have given Jordan — which has felt the grave impact of more than two years of instability in its northern neighbor — the jitters. Commentators have tried to analyze the effect of this victory by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime over rebel forces, who had to flee the town after a siege by the regular army and Hezbollah forces that lasted more than two weeks. The pressing question on everyone’s mind was this: Can Assad survive and win?

The answer to this question may determine the future stability of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan. For months, since the eruption of the Syrian uprising in March 2011, Jordan has embraced a calculated position, calling for a political solution to the conflict and rejecting foreign intervention. But it also backed efforts to depose Assad and allow for a transitional phase so that the Syrian people could choose a new leadership. It was a tough line to follow.

Meanwhile, Jordan has opened its borders to hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees whose presence exacerbated the country’s economic problems. It has also received defecting officers and senior officials, including a sitting prime minister. The Damascus regime did not appreciate Jordan’s position, especially after allegations that Amman had allowed Jihadists and shipments of weapons to cross into Syria. At one point, Assad threatened that the fire in Syria would not spare Jordan.

Jordanians remain divided, though not equally, in their perception of the Syrian debacle. The majority supported the uprising, but die-hard Arab nationalists and Baathists stood by the Damascus regime. Under pressure from the United States and Gulf countries, Jordan slowly abandoned its calculated policy on Syria and joined the anti-Assad camp. In May, Amman hosted a meeting of the so-called Friends of Syria core group and signed onto a statement that called for Assad to leave power. The thin red line had been crossed, and Jordan found itself on the opposite side.