Earlier this month, two Al-Monitor contributors wondered how Turkey turned from the healthy man into the lonely man of Europe and the Middle East so quickly.

The answer lies in a favorite device of history buffs: counterfactuals. What if Alexander the Great had lived longer and expanded his domains further? What if the Chinese and not the Europeans had “discovered” the Americas? Exploring alternative directions in history equips us with a deeper understanding of the past and present.

Thus, our question: What if the government of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan had acted differently at critical turning points in the past few years?

An investigation like this is apt to start with the Kurdish question — still Turkey’s most important obstacle in becoming a democratic country. For the past thirty years, the conflict between the militant Kurdish group the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) and Turkish security forces has claimed nearly 40,000 lives. The fighting has retarded the social, economic and political development of Turkey. What if Turkey had resolved the Kurdish question by now?