The repercussions of the Arab Spring have hit the Lebanese economy at a moment when it was already struggling, due to the absence of necessary reforms and elements of an active state, along with the effects of the Syrian crisis. The international economy was also encumbered due to the effects of the 2008 financial crisis. These repercussions exacerbated the risks and added political challenges to the existing economic and financial hardships. Now the Syrian crisis is adding more vagueness to the gloomy scene by taking the oil markets to records that have not been witnessed for some time, which will undoubtedly affect economic growth if the status quo stays the same and the dust does not settle. Nothing can harm the economy more than uncertain periods, leading it toward inflation and recession.

Whether or not it is carried out, the potential strike on Syria will deeply impact the Arab and international economies. Certainly, the effects vary between both cases. The military option is still possible, yet not in the near future after the matter was referred to the United Nations. The latter is striving to issue a resolution that brings rival parties to an agreement, goes beyond vetoes and puts Syria’s chemical weapons under international control. Everything that was said and shown on television channels about the possibility of a military operation, in addition to the expectations and counter-expectations, has increased risks in the Middle East, the region that enjoys the world’s largest strategic oil reserves. Herein lies the essence of the issue.

International markets will not be affected if the production of Syrian crude oil — which does not amount to more than 0.4% of international production — is impeded or stopped. They will, however, suffer from the repercussions of the Syrian crisis on the region and its effects on key countries of the conflict, especially since it seems the latter are likely to be completely engaged in this conflict. Foremost among these countries is Iran. We have already mentioned this several times before: The conflict is mainly with Iran. The repercussions of the crisis will be limited to the military and economic response of Iran. The possibility that Iran could shut down the Strait of Hormuz increases oil prices every time crises in the Middle East escalate toward military confrontation.

The market basics are worsening the situation, pushing crude prices toward an increase and impeding the international growth cycle. The demand market is in crisis. Iraqi oil production did not reach the expected levels, i.e., 10 million barrels per day. Libya’s production has dramatically fallen to as little as 10% of its maximum capacity, due to the severe political crisis that is threatening the country's stability. Even Nigeria is going through a harsh oil crisis since its production is being methodically stolen. Furthermore, the turmoil in Egypt that is threatening the Suez Canal’s shipping traffic is an additional factor pressuring prices, including insurance contracts.