After a three month-long “strategic review,” the Obama administration has decided to “recalibrate” aid to Egypt and curtail support to its military — a move unlikely to even slightly alter the course of Egypt’s troubled transition. While the aid debate has preoccupied US policymakers and pundits, it is mostly meaningless for Egypt’s leaders, already convinced that Washington stands against the current government. Indeed, Egypt’s generals have conducted a strategic review of their own, and have already begun to cast away their partner of 35 years.

Projecting a deep disdain for Washington’s policies of the past few months, Egypt’s leaders are neither begging for US support nor waiting for Washington to dictate the future course of bilateral relations. Egypt has sued for divorce, and the US decision to curb military aid simply consummates the separation.

Regardless of policy decisions taken in Washington, the 35-year partnership between Washington and Cairo is quickly fraying. At this point, no US policy shift regarding economic or military assistance would be decisive in influencing the calculus of Egypt’s leaders. In Egypt’s starkly polarized political context — where the generals perceive their power and position at stake — the Egyptian military will continue its clampdown against domestic opposition in spite of Washington’s advice.

Since its July 3 takeover, the military-led government has systematically repressed the political opposition through arrests, legal action and brute force. The government’s attempt to permanently eradicate the Muslim Brotherhood from Egyptian political life is coupled with its aggressive campaign to silence and intimidate the independent press.