On Nov. 24, the world awoke to a new Middle East. Some might find this claim imprudent, made in the heat of a momentous agreement reached between Iran and the five UN Security Council permanent member and Germany, or P5+1. True, institutional pressures in Iran and the United States mean implementing the deal will prove at least as difficult and sensitive as striking it has been. And we can be certain that it will be resisted fiercely by Israel and Saudi Arabia, given their long-standing animosity toward the Iranian regime and recent efforts to block an agreement.
These reservations are duly noted. But the deal announced in Geneva in the early hours of Nov. 24 is not merely wishful thinking on the part of the negotiating countries to break through one of the region’s most persistent disputes. It is also the clearest expression yet of shifting geopolitical dynamics that have been bringing Iranian and US interests closer together.
Syria is a major component of this shift. By being able to sustain Syrian President Bashar al-Assad — despite facing immense political, economic and military pressures — the Iranian regime proved its weight on the ground. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey made a mess of a situation that had until recently seemed in their — and the rebels’ — favor. The social, political and physical disintegration of Syria and the flooding of al-Qaeda-affiliated groups to fill the vacuum prompted the Barack Obama administration to look at Iran and Russia for a mutually agreed solution. The election of Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and the softening of Iran’s rhetoric provided a welcome opportunity. Whether or not Iran gets an invitation to the international conference on Syria scheduled for Jan. 22, its position will be firmly represented in Geneva.
The turn of events in Syria confirms a widely held conviction about power dynamics in the Middle East: Iran, with its long tradition of statehood, influence over the region’s Shiites and vital strategic location, holds the key to many of the region’s most intractable impasses. When it budges, the region moves. Three decades ago, its revolution changed the face of international politics in this part of the world. Today, the suggestion of a detente with the West indicates major systemic changes — and triggers frenzied reactions.
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