A highly risky situation is emerging for Turkey on its eastern borders, as developments in northern Syria continue to deteriorate in favor of al-Qaeda-related groups that are also trying to make headway in Iraq’s strategic Anbar province. These developments have also pushed the question of removing President Bashar al-Assad from power to the back burner for the West as combating jihadists becomes a much more pressing need.

As work continues for the Geneva II conference, Ankara remains opposed to any settlement that will keep Assad in place. Addressing a Jan. 6 Nikkei conference in Tokyo, where he was on an official visit, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan underlined this point once again.

Referring to “certain mistakes made at Geneva I,” Erdogan said, “We hope these mistakes will not be made at Geneva II, that a successful result is obtained there and that a step can be taken for a Syria without Bashar.”

Concern is nevertheless increasing among Turkish security and intelligence officials over the advances in Syria and Iraq by al-Qaeda-affiliated groups, particularly the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS), whose name reflects its ambitions.