The decision made by Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain to withdraw their ambassadors from Qatar was not a typical occurrence. This move was a precedent in intra-Gulf relations, and reveals the true nature and dimensions of the present conflicts in the Arab region as well as the shift in the established equations and balance of power. Will the effects of this decision go beyond the countries in question — i.e., the Gulf states — to reach the neighboring countries?

Will this decision affect the Levant, namely the Syrian and Lebanese arenas, which are suffering from a conflict — or rather war — that is not unrelated to the decision of the three countries? Indeed, the direct causes triggering the decision are limited to the Gulf area. The three countries, as per their joint statement, accuse Doha of failing to uphold the Riyadh Agreement signed on Nov. 23, 2013. By signing the agreement, the nations vowed not to support “hostile media” and any party that resorts to direct security work or political actions, to threaten the “security and stability of the GCC states, be it an organization or an individual.” The agreement also insists on noninterference in the internal affairs of any Gulf state. Indeed, the real subject of discord that left the countries fuming was Qatar’s support for jihadist and Islamic groups, working in different arenas, from the Maghreb to the Levant — i.e., from Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, to Syria, Iraq and Lebanon. These groups are now directly targeting the Gulf states, declaring hostility to the ruling regimes and using terrorism to threaten their stability. The recent events in Bahrain and each party’s reaction to them give further proof to the current situation, and to the one that might occur if the tensions are not actively and rigorously contained.

The small state of Qatar has been trying for two decades to distinguish itself from the traditional Arab diplomacy led by Saudi Arabia. Tensions exacerbated on many occasions to the point of explicit disagreement or direct clash. An unforgettable example of that would be the media campaign led by Al-Jazeera — known for its allegiance to the small emirate — following the Iraq War, against the “polytheist US forces,” urging them to leave the “Arab land.” The campaign ended, as we know, with Qatar hosting the two largest US military bases in the Gulf.

The other example that raised concerns and questions is Qatar’s involvement in the Lebanese file through the Iranian-Syrian gate in 2008, drawing on several factors: the faltering Cedar Revolution, the dismantling of its international safety net when the mandates of both Presidents George W. Bush and Jacques Chirac expired — in addition to the waning influence of the March 14 movement in Lebanon due to performance failure — and above all security threats and the political assassination of a number of the movement’s leaders and prominent figures.