Today it seems there is no concept as popular as that of the Cold War. Once again, in spite of the diversity of the world, the conversation is between only two capitals — Moscow and Washington. Commentators recall terms that would seem to be hopeless anachronisms, first and foremost — nuclear deterrence. At the focus of the confrontation is a large country in the center of Europe, for all purposes already divided into spheres of influence and facing the prospect of officially splitting into two (at a minimum). Deja vu.
And here is how US Secretary of State John Kerry acknowledges that in the Cold War, much was “easier than it is today — simpler is maybe a way to put it.”
The recognized parallels should not lead to false conclusions — the real Cold War, such as it was over the span of four decades of the 20th century, will never be repeated. This is because its main distinguishing characteristic was not the confrontation between the Soviet Union and the United States, but the balance of their military-strategic capacities. The balance of power, affixed by nuclear-missile parity, facilitated a stability in the global system that was unprecedented in the history of international relations.
Even though Russian-US restraint has outlived all changes, in all other respects the balance of power has not remained, nor is spoken of. The very understanding of power has become multifaceted; it has come to include economic, informational, humanitarian and ideological components, and it is understood that Russia and the United States are on the whole very asymmetric. And yet it can be said that at the end of April 2014 Russia and the United States entered into a period of confrontation. This is not an all-embracing deadlock, as was the case 30 years ago, but an antagonistic relationship. Ukraine became the cause of it, but mutual antagonism has long accumulated. Its roots lie in varying — and ever more divergent — views of what took place during the border period of the 1980s and 1990s, and why. And it is from an interpretation of how the Cold War concluded that flows an understanding of present times, and most importantly, desires for the future.
AL-MONITOR All-Access gives you unlimited access to all our journalism, the full Daily Briefing, exclusive interviews, premium newsletters, and live events — for less than $2/week.