The prevailing estimate in diplomatic and international circles is that the diplomatic process between Israel and the Palestinians — having gone through lengthy and glorious death throes — has “kicked the bucket” and was given a state funeral to much fanfare. And the best proof of that is what US President Barack Obama said on May 28 — or more precisely, did not say — in his most recent speech at West Point. Defined a priori as an address about “diplomacy,” it set out to broach the president’s foreign policy (which has not seen remarkable success to date). Surprisingly enough, however, Obama made no mention at all of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict; not even in as much as a short, vague paragraph, if only to go through the motions. It was as if the Middle East never existed.
But here’s the point. We are still here, as are the Palestinians and the common problems. Israel believes that the diplomatic topic will re-emerge over the coming weeks out of the blue, making its umpteenth comeback. If the formation of a Palestinian national unity government is indeed announced within a few days (following its postponement on May 29), it will consist of technocrats headed by Fatah. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas will serve as its most authoritative figure. But most importantly, Israel’s intelligence services as well as the Foreign Ministry’s research department estimate that this government will accept the Quartet’s three conditions (that Hamas recognize Israel, accept past agreements between Israel and the PLO and renounce the armed struggle.)
If that were the case, it would herald a dramatic, international, diplomatic development. Hamas does not recognize Israel or the agreements signed with it. It's also unwilling to stop the armed struggle against it. Hamas’ raison d’etre is religious. According to the religious tenets of radical Islam, Jews are descendants of apes and pigs, and the land of Israel and Palestine belongs entirely to the Muslim waqf and no person has the right to give it up. That is the reason why Israel and Hamas do not communicate directly (although they do communicate in a variety of indirect ways). Relying on that government of technocrats, Hamas will be able to enjoy the best of both worlds or to have it both ways, so to speak.
On the one hand, it does not change its convention or its doctrine. It also does not recognize Israel while continuing to go about its business. On the other hand, it is represented by a so-called professional, apolitical government that recognizes the Quartet’s conditions. Theoretically, this is a government that could embark on negotiations with Israel.
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