Iran's uncertain intervention in Iraq

Meir Javedanfar

Volunteers, who have joined the Iraqi Army to fight against the predominantly Sunni militants who have taken over Mosul and other Northern provinces, travel in army trucks in Baghdad June 14, 2014. Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki told army officers in the city of Samarra that volunteers were arriving to help defeat Islamist militants who have swept through Sunni Muslim territory towards Baghdad. REUTERS/Thaier Al-Sudani (IRAQ - Tags: CIVIL UNREST POLITICS MILITARY) - RTR3TQL8 — Volunteers, who have joined the Iraqi army to fight against the predominantly Sunni militants who have taken over Mosul and other northern provinces, travel in army trucks in Baghdad, June 14, 2014. — REUTERS/Thaier Al-Sudani

The recent lightning victories in Iraq of the Sunni extremist group the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) have undoubtedly left many Middle Eastern leaders surprised, asking, "What does it mean for us?"

The same applies to Iraq's powerful Shiite neighbor, Iran.

In Iran, when it comes to dealing with Iraq, there are two main bodies: first, the government headed by President Hassan Rouhani, which deals with Iraq through diplomatic and trade relations; and second, the security forces, chief among them the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps' (IRGC) Quds Force, headed by Gen. Qasem Soleimani, referred to as the "shadow commander" by some in Iraq.

In the short run, both groups in Iran can gain from the recent ISIS victories in Iraq. In the long run, both have much to lose.

Iran's uncertain intervention in Iraq

The ISIS attack on Iraq presents many risks for Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps.

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