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Leaked video may signal cracks in Iranian leadership

Whether leaked by enemies of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) or the IRGC itself, the video revealing statements by the IRGC commander about preventing the election of Reformists in 2009 may reveal cracks in the regime’s leadership.

Iranian Revolutionary Guards commander Brigadier General Mohammad Ali Jafari holds a press conference in Tehran on September 16, 2012. Jafari said members of his elite special operations unit, the Quds Force, are present in Syria and Lebanon but only to provide "counsel." AFP PHOTO/ATTA KENARE        (Photo credit should read ATTA KENARE/AFP/GettyImages)
Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Brig. Gen. Mohammad Ali Jafari holds a news conference in Tehran, Sept. 16, 2012. — ATTA KENARE/AFP/GettyImages

What many suspected before, that Iran's 2009 elections were a sham, seems no longer to be in dispute.

The proof came in the form of a leaked video in which Mohammad Ali Jafari, the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), stated that the victory of the Reformists in the 2009 elections and their return to power was a “red line,” and how and why it was prevented. 

But that was in 2009. Five years have passed. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is no longer president. Will the release of such a controversial video really have an impact on Iranian politics?

The answer is no, at least not on the surface.

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