The Lebanese political establishments, especially those who blocked the holding of parliamentary sessions to elect a president, are making a mistake by thinking that a presidential vacuum is a minor matter whose implications can be easily dealt with. A power vacuum generates more vacuums, and hits to constitutional procedures will eventually impose economic costs that we could have done without, to say the least.
The effects of the constitutional vacuum have started to appear in the reports of global financial and banking institutions, which have reclassified Lebanon’s financial standing given the high risks, the low growth expectations and the low probability for reform. The first of these indicators was the report by the global institution Merrill Lynch issued a few days ago. The report called for reclassifying Lebanon’s external debt from “market weight” to “under weight” because the macroeconomic fundamentals are weakening and because of the deteriorating political situation.
The matter is not just related to the presidential vacuum, but also to the circumstances surrounding it and the lack of a solution on the horizon in the near future. It is not the first time that Lebanon witnesses a presidential or cabinet vacuum. There was a presidential vacuum in 2008 when the internal political crisis kept the presidential post empty for months. Despite that, the Lebanese economy grew at a rate of 8%. At the time, Lebanon managed to overcome its crisis thanks to international help, especially since the regional situation was not as tense as today. Back then, there was no war in Syria that was affecting Lebanon, nor had the “war on terror” taken this new formula with new alliances, nor had the Iranian-US dialogue reached the point of overturning existing power balances in Lebanon and in the Middle East.
The conditions of the power vacuum are quite different from six years ago. The presidential vacuum, according to the Merrill Lynch report, reflects a chronic problem of political paralysis at Lebanon’s institutions. The report warned of the possibility and severity of the vacuum expanding, especially since it is linked to the course of the Syrian crisis.
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