No Turkey expert will be spared this agony. If you have not already — whether you are fluent in Turkish or not — you better start spelling out this name now: Ekmeleddin Ihsanoglu. For English speakers, it's best to check out Al-Monitor contributor Steven A. Cook’s tweet on how to say his name. Ihsanoglu may well be the next president of Turkey. Whether he wins or not, his rather difficult-to-pronounce name will be in the news at least until Aug. 10, the day of the Turkish presidential elections.
On June 16, the two main opposition parties, the Republican People’s Party (CHP) and the Nationalist Action Party (MHP), announced their joint candidate for the presidency. The MHP had proposed the idea of an “umbrella candidate” (the direct translation in Turkish of “cati adayi” is “roof candidate,” spawning political jokes about rooftops). Although these two parties are quite far apart on the ideological spectrum, their tacit alliance started during the municipal elections of March 30. Knowing well that they could not stand alone against the Justice and Development Party (AKP), their alliance guarantees the majority of anti-AKP (or anti-Erdogan) votes will work together. Yet, as the last election proved, just being anti-AKP is not sufficient. The CHP and MHP realized they must come up with a candidate who not only can stand the heat from AKP’s religious rhetoric, but also has a chance to attract voters from the AKP’s core. Their candidate, at least on paper, seems to be able to do just that.
Since the announcement of Ihsanoglu’s candidacy, the surprise factor — based on observations from social media, TV shows and private conversations with pro-government pundits and government officials — appears to be that the AKP was prepared for the opposition to pull its forces together to form an anti-AKP bloc. It had already experienced that in the Ankara municipal race, when the CHP nominated a candidate with MHP roots who proved to be a strong challenger to the AKP incumbent. However, the result fell short of a victory for the opposition. This time around, the opposition has learned that just pulling forces together is not sufficient for an overwhelming victory against the AKP. The opposition knows that at least 4% to 6% of the AKP’s voters have to be swayed away from Erdogan to provide a smooth path to victory.
There was only one way to assure this goal, and that was to nominate a pious yet not radical conservative figure. Ihsanoglu qualifies for all this and then some. This was the surprise factor. However, credit is due to the AKP’s skilled media managers, who immediately focused on keeping the party's base together. Ihsanoglu’s personal piety will not be questioned, but the focus will be on how he failed to condemn the toppling of Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi as a “coup.” Unable to find better arguments to convince the voters that Ihsanoglu cannot be the president of Muslim Turkey, AKP leaders have so far based their arguments on this issue.
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