The surprise talks on July 14 between Turkey’s Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his guest, Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) President Massoud Barzani, represented one party entangled in electoral politics and another squeezed between his aspirations for independence — a cherished aim for the Kurds dispersed mainly in four countries of the Middle East — and realpolitik constraints.

According to news leaked from quarters close to Erdogan, “The talks with Barzani covered the expectations for independence in northern Iraq, the political process in the country, northern Iraq and Kirkuk oil and consulate personnel in the hands of the Islamic State (IS, formerly the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham) and the solution process in Turkey. Barzani was given the message to avoid incidents that could inflame ethnic and sectarian strife in Iraq and that the political efforts to preserve the integrity of the country should be supported.”

Barzani’s unexpected visit to Ankara was widely seen as as Barzani’s search for support from Turkey in his quest for independence. When one takes note of the increasing comments in the Western media to the effect of Erdogan being about to midwife a new state born in Iraq, it was inevitable that the Barzani visit be interpreted as focusing on Turkey’s support for an independent Iraqi Kurdistan.

But this interpretation is misleading. Turkey has carefully avoided saying anything publicly against independence for the Kurdistan Region that could offend Barzani, who has become essentially the sole ally of an increasingly isolated Turkey. This is not only a foreign policy issue. The solution process with the Turkish Kurds, an important factor in the upcoming presidential elections, made it imperative not to say anything that could upset them.