The Aug. 10 Turkish presidential election — the first time the voters will directly elect their president — is unlikely to be a nail-biter. Nonetheless, this will herald a new era of constitutional crises and increased polarization. This is because Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, favored to win the election, has already indicated that he will try to govern the country from the presidential palace despite the fact that the constitution unequivocally empowers parliament and its selected prime minister as the center of executive power.
While it is not clear how Erdogan will achieve a transfer of power away from parliament, the outcome of the elections themselves will be key to his strategy. There are two other candidates of note other than him. His main competition, Ekmeleddin Ihsanoglu, is the joint choice of the two main opposition parties, the Republican People’s Party (CHP) and the Nationalist Action Party (MHP). The pro-Kurdish People's Democracy Party (HDP) has also filed a candidate, Selahattin Demirtas.
In the event that there is no clear winner in the first round, that is, someone getting more than 50% of the vote, there will be a second round among the two top contenders. Should it be necessary, the expectation is that Erdogan and Ihsanoglu would meet again in the second round two weeks later.
The real question is whether it is better for Erdogan to score a straightforward win on the first round with slightly more than 50% or go into the second round where he is likely to win with 60% or more. In light of the changes he wants to implement at the presidency, Erdogan might prefer resounding victory in the second round. Such a resounding margin of victory is easier to parlay as an extraordinary mandate for the first popularly elected president. Between his intuitive and domineering style that allows him to control the nation’s agenda and the print and electronic media that slavishly extol his deeds and ideas, a massive second-round victory would be used to justify the powers that he wants to incorporate into the presidency.
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