“There will be major and very quick developments in trade with Russia, but I won't be able to give any details at this moment,” Turkish Economy Minister Nihat Zeybekci told Al-Monitor in a late July interview.

Less than a month after this cryptic statement, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a ban on imports of meat, fish, milk, other dairy products, and fruit and vegetables from the United States, the European Union and Australia in retaliation for sanctions imposed on Russia over the Ukraine crisis. Russia then quickly began talks with Turkey as an alternative supplier of the said goods.

Did Zeybekci have any prior knowledge of the Russian move? Was it the reason why he spoke of an imminent and major increase in trade with Russia?

According to information obtained by Al-Monitor, Turkey had no prior knowledge of the ban, but Russia did raise the possibility of boosting bilateral trade, conveying especially its interest in buying more food and agricultural products. Preparations were even launched for a comprehensive cooperation framework, involving Turkey’s indirect integration into the customs union between Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus.