Turkey is facing a set of challenges in the Middle East, largely but not entirely because of the advent of the Islamic State (IS), which it never expected to face two years ago. Prime Minister-designate Ahmet Davutoglu will have to chart a new course through the turbulence in the region that has started to pose serious threats to Turkey.
Experts do not appear hopeful that the Davutoglu government, which will operate under the tutelage of President-elect Recep Tayyip Erdogan, can rise to the occasion. The expectation is that Erdogan and Davutoglu will be preoccupied with the 2015 general elections and have little time to spend on foreign policy.
Wolfango Piccoli, a Turkey expert at the US-based consulting firm Teneo, also sees a risk of further slippage. In an assessment made available to Al-Monitor, Piccoli wrote: “Looking ahead, no major deviations are to be expected from the overall policy path under Erdogan’s presidency. However, there is a growing risk that the policy-making process will become further de-institutionalized, thereby making it more opaque, unpredictable and susceptible to Erdogan's personal views.”
If this assessment is accurate, Turkey’s inability to respond to crises on its borders will only grow. The situations in Iraq and Syria remain Ankara’s most important challenges today. Pleased to see Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki go, Ankara is closely following Prime Minister-designate Haider al-Abadi’s efforts to form a new Cabinet.
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