Will Turkey’s Constitutional Court make a ruling that could upend the political balance in the country and bring about the end of the 12-year rule of the Justice and Development Party (AKP)?
A short background is in order: Muharrem Sarikaya of Haberturk added some credence to the rumors in political circles when he spoke to Hasim Kilic, the president of the Constitutional Court. Kilic told Sarikaya that the court is about to reach a decision on the appeal by the pro-Kurdish People's Democracy Party (HDP) to nullify the 10% election threshold. Kilic’s remark was interpreted as meaning that the pending decision could affect the general elections in June 2015.
The 10% election threshold requires a party to get at least 10% of the general vote to enter the parliament. If there were no such rule, political parties that got even 1% of the vote could sit in the parliament. In Turkey, right-wing voters and right-wing parties are in the majority. Voters who think their favorite party's showing will be too weak will vote for their second choices, often the more powerful parties. The AKP has benefited considerably from this setup for the past 12 years. Abolishing the threshold would most affect the AKP, as many votes for it would shift to more ideologically right-wing parties. Some Kurds who mostly voted for the AKP before would vote for the HDP. Some observers estimate that any total vote below 40% could mean the loss of single-party rule. Alarm bells are therefore ringing for the AKP, which received 45% of the vote in the last local elections.
Another issue that worries the AKP but encourages the opposition is the tense relations between Kilic and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. During the April 24 anniversary of the establishment of the Constitutional Court, Kilic strongly criticized the government. Erdogan has long targeted the high court. Relations between the two have almost reached the breaking point. Kilic, whose tenure ends in March, wields a strong influence on the high court judges. Of them, 10 out of 17 were appointed by the previous president of Turkey, Abdullah Gul.
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