The mood in Ramallah is one of doom and gloom after the Israeli elections. In the words of a senior Palestinian Authority official, “If before the elections some of us thought the problem was [Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu, now we all know the problem is Israel itself.” In his opinion and those of other Ramallah-based senior officials who spoke to Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity, “The peace process is now formally dead.”
A high-level Palestinian security official who asked his name be withheld told Al-Monitor that the new situation — without any Israeli peace partner and without any US ability to enforce a process — leaves the Palestinians with little alternative. The only option at their disposal now is a nonviolent intifada, probably under the theme of liberating East Jerusalem, that according to him may turn violent depending on the Israel Defense Forces' reaction. It may include Hamas and Islamic Jihad, as all these factions sense that they have little to lose. “This must become our war of independence,” the official said, “coupled with diplomatic activities to assure statehood along the 1967 lines.”
One sort of diplomatic activity, which he coined “diplomatic intifada,” would be of a unilateral nature, focusing on the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague. The accusations against Israel on settlement construction and war crimes could be filed with the ICC as soon as April. The other kind of diplomatic activity revolves around a possible UN Security Council resolution. Ramallah, according to this source, is coordinating with Egypt and France on a two-year timeline of implementation, leading to an independent Palestinian state based on the 1967 lines, with East Jerusalem as its capital, mutual land swaps, security arrangements and a reference to the Arab Peace Initiative.
While France is preoccupied with the UN resolution proposal, the US administration is taking a different stance. A senior State Department official spoke to Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity about the trends in the US administration following the Israeli elections. These thoughts are influenced by several factors: The first and principle factor is that the president himself is the main policy decision-maker on the Israeli-Palestinian issue, consulting regularly with his national security adviser and the secretary of state.
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