Unlike the easily predictable August presidential election, the June 7 elections are rather suspenseful. Pundits agree on a few facts: The pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) is on the rise and the Justice and Development Party (AKP) has lost the support of some of its loyal allies — most importantly the Kurds — due to campaign mistakes and political and economic failures.

First and foremost, the AKP’s policy failures regarding the Kurdish peace process have been paramount since Recep Tayyip Erdogan became president. Al-Monitor consulted numerous scholars, Kurdish activists and politicians who all agreed that Kurdish support for the AKP is dwindling. Since Al-Monitor columnist Fehim Tastekin’s report on how Kurdish and Arab tribes in the southeast have abandoned the AKP, it has only worsened.

On May 25, in the Kurdish town of Varto in the Mus province, reports surfaced that the entire AKP-dominated city council resigned and declared their support for the HDP. Mehmet Alma, a former AKP member from Diyarbakir, told Al-Monitor, “None of the AKP’s promises were delivered. We waited for 13 years and did everything in the name of peace. So we now work with the HDP that is holding on to the peace process.”

Hatice Altinisik, a member of the HDP’s Central Executive Council who has been campaigning in western cities for almost a year, told Al-Monitor that in the town of Yolkanak, “there are Kurds who had settled there years ago. They used to vote for the AKP, so much so that Erdogan had sent them a thank you placard for their loyalty. Now that the HDP is entering the election as a party, half of them will vote for the HDP.”