The June 7 elections came as a breath of fresh air for millions of Turks who were worried about President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s endless temptation for more power. They were not all wrong, for the ballots gave Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) its first major setback in 13 years. The party lost nearly 10% of the votes it had received in 2011, and, more importantly, lost its parliamentary majority. This was a lethal blow to the “presidential system” that Erdogan wanted for himself with a tailor-made constitution. Moreover, it was a safeguard against AKP hegemony in the government, legislation, the bureaucracy and perhaps even in the media.

Many secular and liberal Turks celebrated the election results. Articles in the Western media congratulated Turkey for “saving its democracy.” But one should perhaps be a bit more wary and not rush to join this euphoria. Erdogan probably thinks that he has just lost a battle, not the war. And he may be right.

Why? The June 7 elections ended AKP hegemony, but they also initiated an era of uncertainty. Since no party in the parliament has a majority, leaders will now try to form coalition governments. But if they fail to do so or form a coalition government that may be unstable, Turkey will go to the voting booths again. The AKP will be able to tell the electorate, “You see, unless we are in full power, the country descends into chaos.” The Turkish electorate, for which the very term “coalition” is already an alarm signal due to bad memories from the 1990s, could find this argument persuasive.

Here is the road map that awaits Turkey: The Turkish Constitution decrees that after the formation of the parliament — which should be completed June 23-24, when the new deputies take their oaths and officially occupy their seats — 45 days will be allowed for the formation of a government. Then, the president assigns the prime minister post to a member of parliament (typically, the leader of the biggest party), who forms his Cabinet, gets the president’s approval and then obtains a “vote of confidence” from the parliament. In the recent past, all these steps took only a few days, since the AKP had a parliamentary majority and could proceed with no bumps. Now, since no party has a majority, the “vote of confidence” can be secured only when at least two parties agree on the new government. And that can happen only with a coalition — or, less likely, with a “minority government,” with one party supporting another party's government without joining it.