It’s no coincidence that the disappearance in Gaza of a young Israeli man named Avraham Mengistu has only now been made public. Mengistu, a 29-year-old in all likelihood suffering from mental illness, climbed the border fence near the Zikim kibbutz Sept. 7, 2014, and has since been considered missing. On July 9, a gag order was lifted on the disappearance of another Israeli, a Bedouin man who crossed the border into Gaza as well. Israeli authorities are treating the two cases quite differently. Mengistu was captured by Hamas shortly after entering Gaza, whereas the other Israeli had crossed the border several times in the past and is thought to be living in Gaza, with a family and with Hamas' consent, and is not therefore considered any sort of potential bargaining chip.
Israel kept a lid on Mengistu’s crossing into Gaza, assuming that as long as Hamas did not publicly declare that it held him, an exchange could be quietly negotiated for his return along with the remains of Lt. Hadar Goldin and Sgt. Oron Shaul, two Israel Defense Forces (IDF) soldiers killed during last summer’s Operation Protective Edge.
The only hint that Hamas has conveyed in recent days, to its followers and to Israel, was during a July 8 rally by its military wing the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigade, marking the one-year anniversary of last summer's war. In addition to a display of weaponry — including two rockets, which Hamas claims to have recently developed — three IDF dog tags were exhibited. One of them bears Shaul's name, but the two others had no names inscribed. This is a clear sign that the organization holds three bargaining chips in its hands.
Significant progress on a deal was reportedly made through contacts between Israel and Hamas using European intermediaries and involvement by the Red Cross. According to Hamas sources, the deal was expected to have been completed around Eid al-Fitr, the feast culminating the month-long Ramadan fast that this year falls between July 18 and 20. A senior Hamas official is quoted as saying that Israel was supposed to release several prisoners, probably a few dozen, during the holiday and in return, Hamas would give Israel the two soldiers' remains. The progress to which the source referred was based on an understanding the sides had reached on the number of prisoners.
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