Turkey’s economy has entered a critical period. The prospect of snap elections remains alive despite six possible ways to form a coalition or minority government from the hung parliament the June 7 polls produced. The political impasse is already having a negative impact on economic indicators, atop the bruising effects of Russia’s economic crisis, civil strife in neighboring countries, the blockage of Turkey’s export routes to the Middle East and Africa, the prospect of the Fed hiking interest rates and the falling euro-dollar parity.

While Turkey’s revenues are decreasing, the burden of Syrian and Iraqi refugees has opened a virtual “black hole” in the economy. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan put the refugees’ bill at $6 billion, in a reproachful speech to foreign ambassadors in Ankara on July 9. “We are currently hosting 2 million people, including 300,000 from Iraq and 1.7 million from Syria,” he said. “The money we have spent for Syrians so far has exceeded $6 billion. But we have received only $400 million [in support] from international sources. Yet we’ll never withdraw our helping hand.”

It’s hard to predict how much more Turkey will spend on the refugees as their number keeps growing amid continuing bloodshed in Syria and Iraq. In the same speech, Erdogan said over 20,000 Syrians had crossed to Turkey in the first two weeks of June amid fighting in Tell Abyad, while the number of those who came from Kobani had reached 190,000.

Turkey is willing to sustain its humanitarian assistance, but it needs greater funding to do that. Thus, the economy has to grow and strengthen. But is the economy growing?